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Opinion poll puts Labour ten points ahead of the Conservatives in Senedd Constituency vote

 

An opinion poll conducted by Opinium for Sky has put Labour ten points ahead of the Conservatives in the Senedd constituency vote.

Based on the latest polls conducted by Opinium, the Conservatives are up 9 compared to the 2016 results, whilst Labour are up 5, Plaid Cymru down 2 and Liberal Democrats down 4.

Welsh Parliament constituency voting intention:

  • Labour – 40% (+ 5)
  • Conservative – 30% (+9)
  • Plaid Cymru – 19% (-2)
  • Liberal Democrats – 4% (-4)

In the list vote, Labour and Conservatives both gain, whilst UKUP are down 11 compared to 2016. Opinium did not promote those surveyed for Abolish the Assembly

Welsh Parliament regional voting intention:

  • Labour – 38% (+6)
  • Conservatives – 27% (+7)
  • Plaid Cymru – 19% (-2)
  • Green Party – 5% (+2)
  • Liberal Democrats – 4% (-3)
  • UKIP – 2% (-11)

When polled for preference for First Minister, Mark Drakeford came out on top with 29%, that’s despite 32% respondents responding don’t know.

  • Mark Drakeford – 29%
  • Andrew RT Davies – 10%
  • Adam Price – 8%
  • Neil Hamilton – 3%
  • Jane Dodds – 3%
  • None – 14%
  • Don’t Know – 32%

In terms of seat projections, the poll suggests Labour would be one seat shy of a majority on 29, with Liberal Democrats holding onto their one seat.

Whilst Conservatives would be up eight seats on 19, Plaid Cymru would be down two on 10 and UKIP down six on just one Senedd seat based on the poll.

In another survey conducted by Opinium, when asked the question “Should Wales be an independent country?” 28% responded yes, whilst 52% said no. The remaining 20% responded, don’t know.

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